UFC 131 Betting Odds Preview at Bodog Sportsbook

Wednesday, June 08, 2011

by Bodog Sportsbook

UFC 131 Betting Odds Preview at Bodog Sportsbook

Brock Lesnar is the most-wagered upon fighter in all of mixed martial arts. So certainly those of us at Bodog UFC Betting were disappointed when it was revealed the Lesnar, the former UFC heavyweight champion who has mastered the role of villain in his sport, had to pull out last month of Saturday night’s UFC 131 card at Rogers Arena in Vancouver. But it’s still an excellent card and we are seeing strong early-week action.

The illness that almost cost Lesnar not only his career but his life, diverticulitis, returned and forced Lesnar out. He says the digestive disorder is not as serious as when he had it two years ago and he's not retiring. He calls this episode a "bump in the road." He had surgery in late May to remove a 12-inch section of his colon, a procedure deemed necessary to address his recurring diverticulitis issues. He hopes to return in January.

So the main event on Saturday has Shane Carwin in Lesnar’s place against Brazilian Junior dos Santos, with the winner getting the next shot at heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez, who was supposed to be fighting dos Santos before the champ had shoulder surgery. Will it be an issue that Carwin only had four weeks’ notice to fight and adjust his training for dos Santos? Carwin was already on the UFC 131 card and set to fight Jon Olav Einemo, who was to make his UFC debut. But Einemo is nothing like dos Santos.

"Junior is a serious fight and not the type of fight that you would normally take on a 30-day notice," Carwin blogged. "But I have a dream to chase, and I do not have a lot of time to chase it. This is an opportunity to put myself in contention for the title."

Carwin (12-1) hasn't stepped in the cage since July 2010, when he nearly defeated Lesnar in the title fight at UFC 116. He's spent the time since recovering from neck surgery and planned to sort of slowly work his way back with that fight against Einemo, who is now facing Dave Herman on Saturday.

Dos Santos (12-1) is 6-0 in his UFC career, which began in 2008, and his only loss came via submission in late 2007 against Joaquim Ferreira in Mo Team League 2. Dos Santos last fought at UFC 117, beating Roy Nelson by unanimous decision. Frankly, many believe that Carwin-dos Santos is actually a better fight than had it been Lesnar-dos Santos. Both Carwin and dos Santos are powerful strikers – very possibly with more power than any of their counterparts -- who won’t shy away from punches. Out of the combined 24 wins for the duo, 22 of them have come via first-round stoppage. In the UFC, they both have four first-round knockouts apiece. Carwin has never gone past the second round in his career and that happened only once.

Dos Santos opened as the -260 favorite on Bodog’s MMA odds for this bout but that number has been bet down to -180. Carwin opened at +200 but now is at +150 because he has taken nearly 65 percent of the action on the moneyline. However, the vast majority of the parlay money is on dos Santos at more than 72 percent. Approximately 32 percent of all parlays involving these fighters are still live. Dos Santos is 5-0 when he has opened as the betting favorite, while Carwin is 2-1 as an underdog.

The most even action we have seen early on is on Mark Munoz against Demian Maia. Munoz (10-2) has won his last two bouts and is 5-1 overall since dropping down to 185 pounds. Maia (14-2) is known as one of the most dangerous jiu-jitsu artists in the sport and also is on a two-fight winning streak. Munoz is at -130 at Bodog with Maia at even money.

Bet on UFC 131 fight with Bodog UFC Betting, click here!

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brock lesnar - cain velasquez - dave herman - demian maia - joaquim ferreira - jon olav einemo - junior dos santos - mark munoz - rogers arena - roy nelson